Protected areas will not protect the Amazon against climate change

Ken Feeley and Miles Silman have published a new article in the journal Diversity and Distributions entitled “Disappearing climates will limit the efficacy of Amazonian protected areas“.  This article discusses how protected areas, while a powerful tool against traditional threats such as hunting and deforestation, will fail to protect many parts of the Amazon against rising temperatures.  In other words, “protected areas are not a panacea and the current reserve system alone may be insufficient to conserve biodiversity in the face of rapidly rising temperatures. Migration, whether through explicit corridors or through landscapes of working forests managed to facilitate species movement, will be paramount in determining the future of Amazonia”.

A discussion of this article is featured in Mongabay

 

Disappearing climates will limit the efficacy of Amazonian protected areas

ABSTRACT: Amazonian forests support high biodiversity and provide valuable ecosystem services. Unfortunately, these forests are under extreme pressure from land use change and other anthropogenic disturbances. A recent study combined data from an Amazon-wide network of forest inventory plots with spatially explicit deforestation models to predict that by 2050, 36% or 57% of species will be ‘globally threatened’, as defined by IUCN Red List criteria, due to deforestation under Increased-Governance or Business-As-Usual scenarios, respectively. It was also predicted that the number of threatened species will drop by 29–44% if no deforestation occurs within protected areas. However, even the best-protected areas of the Amazon may still be susceptible to the effects of climate change and rising temperatures. To illustrate the potential dangers of climate change for Amazonian parks, we calculated the percentage of land area within all officially designated protected areas of tropical South America that will or will not have future temperature analogs under various scenarios of temperature change and park connectivity. We show that depending on the rate of warming and degree of connectivity, about 19–67% of protected areas will not have any temperature analogs in the near future (2050s). These results help to emphasize that protected areas are not immune to the effects of climate change and that large portions of Amazonian protected areas include ‘disappearing climates’. In the face of these disappearing climates, the biggest determinant of many species’ extinction risks may be their ability to migrate through non-protected habitats.

 

Figure 1

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Figure 1. Portions of officially designated protected areas of tropical South America that will (black) or will not (grey) have climate analogs under mean annual temperatures predicted for the 2050s according to the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Climate System Model 4 (NCAR CCSM4) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 (left hand panels, a and c) and 8.5 (right hand panels, b and d). Climate analogs are defined as having the same mean annual temperature ± 0.5 °C. In the top row (panels a and b), the search for climate analogs was extended to all connected or immediately adjacent (at ~5 km resolution) protected areas. In the bottom row (panels c and d), the search for climate analogs was restricted to within the same protected area. The percentage of protected area without future climate analogs under each scenario is indicated within each panel.